Countdown to Humanity’s First Steps on Mars
Thursday, September 8, 2033
Why 2033?
At Aspiring Martians, we like to dream big—but with a firm grounding in reality. If you’re wondering why we chose 2033 as the target for our countdown to humanity’s first footsteps on Mars, here’s the logic behind it.
Orbital Mechanics: The Launch Window That Matters
Sending a spacecraft to Mars isn’t as simple as pointing a rocket at the Red Planet and hitting the ignition. Instead, mission planners must wait for an optimal launch window—a period when Earth and Mars are aligned in a way that minimizes fuel usage and travel time.
These ideal windows occur approximately every 26 months due to the differences in orbital speed between Earth and Mars. Launching at the right time allows spacecraft to follow a Hohmann transfer orbit, an efficient elliptical path that minimizes energy expenditure.
For crewed missions, we assume that SpaceX (or another space agency) would target one of these prime opportunities. The next few key launch windows are:
2026 – Possible, but highly unlikely for a crewed mission.
2028 – Maybe the first uncrewed Starship mission to Mars.
2031 – The first realistic candidate based on very optimistic projections.
2033 – A stronger and more likely human landing window still based on very optimistic projections.
But wait, there’s MORE! If we time things right and Starship is able to make the journey to Mars at breakneck speeds, then humans could set foot on Mars on a breezy Martian Thursday, specifically September 8, 2033. Read more below on what milestones need to be achieved to make this happen!
An Ambitious Timeline to Mars
Some of the most forward-thinking space companies have suggested that a human mission to Mars could happen as early as the late 2020s. However, even under the most optimistic assumptions, several major milestones still need to be achieved before such a mission can become reality:
Deep-Space Vehicles Must Be Fully Operational – Large, reusable rockets designed for interplanetary travel need to consistently reach orbit, refuel in space, and prove they can safely complete long-duration missions.
In-Orbit Refueling Technology Must Be Proven – Mars missions require a vehicle to be refueled in Earth orbit before departing. This complex but critical capability is still in the testing and development phase.
Long-Duration Life Support Must Be Proven – Crews will spend months in deep space. A robust, sustainable closed-loop life support system is necessary.
Surface Infrastructure Must Exist – Landing on Mars is just the beginning. Astronauts need habitats, power sources, and food/water systems to survive.
Given these challenges, 2033 is an aggressive but not impossible target for the first human landing on Mars. If Starship and its support systems develop rapidly over the next few years, it could just barely be achievable.
Aspiring Martians has created a series of milestones culminating in humans landing on Mars on September 8, 2033. Once each milestone is achieved, we will adjust the timetable accordingly by either moving the following milestones up or back
Show Extended Milestone Timeline
Timeline Legend
| Flight Test & Reusability | Key Technology Demonstrations |
| Deep Space & Cislunar Missions | Mars Cargo Missions |
| Crewed Qualification & Readiness | Human Mars Mission |
|
Not Yet Achieved
Completed |
|
Starship Launch & Recovery
First fully successful orbital launch with booster reentry and splashdown
Repeatability Validation
Second uncrewed Starship orbital launch to validate consistency
Mars Payload Simulation
Third uncrewed Starship launch simulating mass of Mars-bound cargo
Starship Reuse Demonstration
Three consecutive successful flights reusing both booster and ship
Orbital Refueling Demo
First in-orbit Starship-to-Starship fuel transfer
Cislunar Flyby Test
Deep space uncrewed mission to Moon or cislunar space
Mars Cargo Launch
Uncrewed mission to Mars carrying limited cargo
Mars Arrival
Limited cargo Starship successfully reaches Mars (landing optional)
Life Support Validation
Demonstration of life support functioning for 6+ months
Habitat Simulation Test
Hab module tested in simulated Martian conditions
Deep Space Refueling
Starship refueling system and launch pad validated in deep space
Crewed Starship Orbital Flight
First orbital Starship mission with crew onboard
Mars Transit Profile Rehearsal
Simulated Mars journey with crew (Earth orbit or lunar flyby)
Final Cargo Launch to Mars
Last batch of supply and habitat ships sent before human mission
Final Mars Arrivals
Supply and habitat Starships arrive and successfully land
Three Crewed Flights
Three successful flights with crew to validate reliability
Final Flight Certification
All systems validated and certified for human Mars mission
Crew Readiness Complete
Crew selected and completed long-duration simulation training
Launch to Mars
First human mission to Mars departs Earth
Humans Arrive on Mars
First human Mars landing or arrival confirmed
